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<p class="MsoNormal">When I’m developing initial estimates for outage ALARA Plans, I average the last three performances for that ALARA Plan, then double weight the most recent.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It looks something like:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>(U1R22+U1R23+U1R24+U1R24)/4 = estimate</b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This puts emphasis on the most recent performance, which is the most likely predictor of future performance, while also taking into account past outages that may have had notably good or bad performances. If you go too far back, you are
likely to encounter completely different work practices, tooling, and outdated technology that make the dose accrual irrelevant for developing current estimates.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">After I have an initial estimate, I dig a little deeper into the planned work to see if I need to make any adjustments (like maybe this outage Ops will be doing significantly more/less LLRT).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">For RP, we estimate them as 10% of all the other ALARA Plans. This has been a pretty reliable trend for us for at least a decade.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Similarly, our Radcon Laborers estimate is 5% of all the other ALARA Plans.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">Thanks,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Monotype Corsiva"">John Hertz<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial Narrow",sans-serif">Radiation Protection / ALARA<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial Narrow",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial Narrow",sans-serif">Desk:</span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial Narrow",sans-serif"> 423-843-6875
<b>Cell:</b> 808-366-0072 <b>Email:</b> <a href="mailto:jjhertz@tva.gov"><span style="color:#0563C1">jjhertz@tva.gov</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial Narrow",sans-serif">Sequoyah Nuclear Plant<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica Neue";color:black"><img border="0" width="287" height="49" style="width:2.9895in;height:.5104in" id="Picture_x0020_2" src="cid:image002.png@01D9CF56.BD40D4E0" alt="TVA logo"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial Narrow",sans-serif">2600 Sequoyah Access Rd, Soddy-Daisy, TN 37379<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Global <global-bounces@list.rpalara.org> <b>On Behalf Of
</b>Singley, Christian M:(Constellation Nuclear)<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, August 15, 2023 7:30 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> global@list.rpalara.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> [Global] Best practices for developing dose estimates without detailed man-hour estimates<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;background:yellow"><strong><span style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black">This is an
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<p class="MsoNormal">At Ginna we have seen in our past outage that past outage history is not being able to be used due to the lack of worker proficiency ie Operations, RP. How are you accounting for this. Are you adding a certain percentage to your estimates
to account for worker proficiency? If so what percentage are you adding?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Script MT Bold"">Christian Singley<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Sr RP ALARA Specialist<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><img border="0" width="158" height="31" style="width:1.6458in;height:.3229in" id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image003.png@01D9CF56.BD40D4E0"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Ginna Station<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">1503 Lake Road<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Ontario, NY 14519<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:Christian.Singley@Constellation.com">Christian.Singley@Constellation.com</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">(315)-791-3263 (w)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">(585)-721-9318 ©<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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