[Global] Best practices for developing dose estimates without detailed man-hour estimates

Tue Aug 15 09:06:15 EDT 2023

When I’m developing initial estimates for outage ALARA Plans, I average the last three performances for that ALARA Plan, then double weight the most recent.
It looks something like:
(U1R22+U1R23+U1R24+U1R24)/4 = estimate
This puts emphasis on the most recent performance, which is the most likely predictor of future performance, while also taking into account past outages that may have had notably good or bad performances. If you go too far back, you are likely to encounter completely different work practices, tooling, and outdated technology that make the dose accrual irrelevant for developing current estimates.

After I have an initial estimate, I dig a little deeper into the planned work to see if I need to make any adjustments (like maybe this outage Ops will be doing significantly more/less LLRT).

For RP, we estimate them as 10% of all the other ALARA Plans. This has been a pretty reliable trend for us for at least a decade.
Similarly, our Radcon Laborers estimate is 5% of all the other ALARA Plans.

Thanks,
John Hertz
Radiation Protection / ALARA

Desk: 423-843-6875   Cell: 808-366-0072   Email: jjhertz at tva.gov<mailto:jjhertz at tva.gov>
Sequoyah Nuclear Plant
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2600 Sequoyah Access Rd, Soddy-Daisy, TN 37379

From: Global <global-bounces at list.rpalara.org> On Behalf Of Singley, Christian M:(Constellation Nuclear)
Sent: Tuesday, August 15, 2023 7:30 AM
To: global at list.rpalara.org
Subject: [Global] Best practices for developing dose estimates without detailed man-hour estimates

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At Ginna we have seen in our past outage that past outage history is not being able to be used due to the lack of worker proficiency ie Operations, RP.  How are you accounting for this.  Are you adding a certain percentage to your estimates to account for worker proficiency?  If so what percentage are you adding?

Christian Singley
Sr RP ALARA Specialist

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